Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 132,772
2 South Dakota 129,757
3 Rhode Island 124,367
4 Utah 118,242
5 Arizona 114,564
6 Tennessee 114,199
7 Oklahoma 109,433
8 Iowa 108,983
9 Arkansas 108,508
10 Wisconsin 107,607
11 Nebraska 106,309
12 South Carolina 103,883
13 Alabama 103,752
14 Kansas 103,377
15 Mississippi 101,221
16 Indiana 100,531
17 Idaho 98,559
18 Nevada 97,360
19 Illinois 95,940
20 Montana 95,874
21 Wyoming 95,639
22 Georgia 95,254
23 New Jersey 95,084
24 Texas 94,434
25 Louisiana 94,337
26 Kentucky 94,207
27 Missouri 93,780
28 Delaware 93,196
29 Florida 92,394
30 California 91,816
31 New York 90,237
32 New Mexico 89,975
33 Minnesota 88,479
34 Massachusetts 87,728
35 North Carolina 85,102
36 Ohio 84,884
37 Connecticut 82,449
38 Alaska 82,396
39 Colorado 77,647
40 Pennsylvania 76,228
41 West Virginia 75,897
42 Virginia 69,959
43 Michigan 67,735
44 Maryland 65,319
45 District of Columbia 60,545
46 New Hampshire 58,152
47 Washington 46,478
48 Puerto Rico 42,863
49 Oregon 37,954
50 Maine 35,253
51 Vermont 27,319
52 Hawaii 20,027

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 392
2 New Jersey 369
3 Alabama 367
4 New York 351
5 Connecticut 315
6 Michigan 225
7 Alaska 219
8 Montana 208
9 Delaware 203
10 Tennessee 203
11 Massachusetts 195
12 Vermont 186
13 New Hampshire 184
14 Pennsylvania 176
15 Florida 175
16 West Virginia 161
17 North Carolina 157
18 Idaho 154
19 Texas 152
20 South Carolina 150
21 Minnesota 149
22 Louisiana 148
23 District of Columbia 140
24 Virginia 139
25 Maine 131
26 Nebraska 130
27 Kentucky 126
28 Iowa 121
29 Maryland 117
30 Colorado 116
31 Utah 114
32 Georgia 113
33 Illinois 113
34 South Dakota 112
35 Ohio 111
36 Wyoming 108
37 North Dakota 90
38 Oklahoma 87
39 Wisconsin 85
40 Indiana 82
41 Arizona 81
42 Nevada 79
43 New Mexico 79
44 Washington 79
45 Mississippi 75
46 Arkansas 71
47 Missouri 64
48 California 61
49 Kansas 53
50 Oregon 51
51 Puerto Rico 49
52 Hawaii 32

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,698
2 New York 2,499
3 Rhode Island 2,438
4 Massachusetts 2,421
5 Mississippi 2,328
6 Arizona 2,277
7 Connecticut 2,187
8 South Dakota 2,161
9 Louisiana 2,134
10 Alabama 2,108
11 North Dakota 1,953
12 Pennsylvania 1,930
13 Indiana 1,912
14 New Mexico 1,841
15 Illinois 1,833
16 Arkansas 1,820
17 Iowa 1,793
18 South Carolina 1,724
19 Tennessee 1,690
20 Michigan 1,681
21 Georgia 1,670
22 Nevada 1,667
23 Kansas 1,659
24 Texas 1,614
25 Delaware 1,554
26 Ohio 1,539
27 Florida 1,510
28 District of Columbia 1,476
29 California 1,435
30 Missouri 1,433
31 West Virginia 1,420
32 Maryland 1,336
33 Montana 1,307
34 Wisconsin 1,233
35 Oklahoma 1,210
36 Minnesota 1,208
37 Wyoming 1,197
38 Virginia 1,183
39 Kentucky 1,156
40 Nebraska 1,156
41 North Carolina 1,120
42 Idaho 1,080
43 Colorado 1,064
44 New Hampshire 884
45 Washington 683
46 Puerto Rico 652
47 Utah 633
48 Oregon 556
49 Maine 539
50 Alaska 399
51 Vermont 344
52 Hawaii 316

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Oklahoma 7
2 Rhode Island 5
3 West Virginia 5
4 Arkansas 4
5 Louisiana 4
6 New York 4
7 Virginia 4
8 California 3
9 Connecticut 3
10 Delaware 3
11 Florida 3
12 Idaho 3
13 Kentucky 3
14 Massachusetts 3
15 Mississippi 3
16 Ohio 3
17 Pennsylvania 3
18 Texas 3
19 Georgia 2
20 Iowa 2
21 Maryland 2
22 New Jersey 2
23 Arizona 1
24 Illinois 1
25 Indiana 1
26 Kansas 1
27 Michigan 1
28 Missouri 1
29 Montana 1
30 Nevada 1
31 New Mexico 1
32 North Carolina 1
33 Oregon 1
34 South Dakota 1
35 Utah 1
36 Washington 1
37 Wyoming 1
38 Alabama 0
39 Alaska 0
40 Colorado 0
41 District of Columbia 0
42 Hawaii 0
43 Maine 0
44 Minnesota 0
45 Nebraska 0
46 New Hampshire 0
47 North Dakota 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 South Carolina 0
50 Tennessee 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 346,807 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 303,383 2 99
Bent Colorado 265,914 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 243,551 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 243,474 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 132,608 222 92
Richland South Carolina 102,668 1057 66
York South Carolina 98,498 1252 60
Orange California 83,142 1975 37
Pierce Washington 44,397 2905 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Foard Texas 7,792 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,720 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,669 5 99
Orange California 1,413 1817 42
Davidson Tennessee 1,256 2008 36
Richland South Carolina 1,244 2027 35
York South Carolina 1,214 2072 34
Pierce Washington 649 2710 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons